The Black Swan
The Impact of the Highly Improbable
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Publisher:
New York : - Random House
Pages:
366
ISBN:
9781400063512
Language:
English
Notes:
Includes bibliographical references (p. [331]-358) and index.
Statement of responsibility:
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Physical description:
xxviii, 366 p. : ill. ; 25 cm.
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Add a CommentTaleb is obviously a smart guy who is nicknamed "Doctor Doom". His book Black Swan is credited with foreseeing the oncoming crisis and strikes a cord with our current economic mindset post 2008. He basically tells the reader that the backbone of Statistical thinking the Bell Curve (normal distribution) does not apply to as many situations as we previously thought. That as Mandelbrot explained the tails are fatter and the far from probable occurs more often then we think. He keeps the book interesting with personal stories and backs up his arguments with past scientific studies, but there is a little bit of ego stroking, which to me, is annoying. Overall it is a book that all risk analysts should read and understand.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Arabic: نسيم نيقولا نجيب طالب, alternatively Nessim or Nissim, born 1960) has three distinct careers[1][2] (literary, scientific, and business) built around what he calls "epistemic limitations and constraints" (probability, uncertainty and the fragility of human knowledge): 1) bestselling literary essayist,[3] 2) university professor in risk engineering (Distinguished Professor level), scholar, epistemologist, philosopher of science (probability and statistics), and 3) senior Wall Street trader, hedge fund manager, and practitioner of mathematical finance.[4] [5][6][7][8] Taleb has been critical of the finance industry and has been credited with making predictions regarding financial crises and making a fortune out of the 2008 crisis.[9][10] Taleb is an activist and a promoter of what he calls a "Black Swan robust" society as well as aggressive "stochastic tinkering" as a means of scientific discovery.[11] Taleb is a bestselling author with 2.7 million copies sold in 31 languages.[12][13] His idiosyncratic writing style mixes narrative fiction (often semi-autobiographical) and short philosophical tales with historical and scientific commentary. Taleb's best-known book, The Black Swan, has been described by The Times as one of the 12 most influential books of the past 60 years.[14] Among the people Taleb has influenced are the writer Malcolm Gladwell [15][16] and the British Tory leader David Cameron,[17] who uses his black swan robustness idea as "intellectual ballast" for his program.
Was eagerly awaiting this book but was very disappointed. I guess I was expecting something akin to Malcolm Gladwell's writing. Taleb is so wordy and tells us too many times what he's going to tell us without actually telling us... I got frustrated and never finished.
It literally changed the way I look at things. He is a little extreme, but I love his theory. Most of the time, when it comes to the big stuff, we don’t have control and our meticulous plans fail us. Life is random, so dance.
Does a great job trashing those financial engineers on Wall Street and the Universities, but a bit technical especially that fractal distribution discussion (hopefully will be better than the bell curve fiasco we've experienced to date)
What a wonderful, thought-provoking book this was. It was recommended as a read-alike for Malcolm Gladwell's The Tipping Point, which I loved. I found Nassim Taleb's style more of an intellectual challenge than Gladwell's, but ultimately every bit as satisfying. Both writers are gifted with interdisciplinary genius, looking at the world with an openness that is coupled with astute analysis. Taleb writes: "understanding how to act under conditions of incomplete information is the highest and most urgent human pursuit." Thankfully, he offers practical suggestions for this quest.